AMMnet seminar: Mathematical Model of Malaria Dynamics in Case of Wetlands

This presentation delves into an eco-epidemiological model designed to unravel the complex dynamics of malaria transmission in wetland environments. We extend the classic Ross-Macdonald framework by explicitly incorporating larval mosquito dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and a hydrological ”wetness index.” Through stability analysis and numerical simulation, we derive a novel expression for the basic reproduction number (R0) that captures the critical balance between wetland productivity and natural biological control. Our findings identify key ecological thresholds and demonstrate how seasonal hydrological patterns drive malaria incidence. The model serves as a virtual laboratory, generating synthetic epidemiological data (epidata) to test intervention strategies, such as the targeted use of larvivorous fish, providing a quantitative framework for sustainable malaria control in these ecologically sensitive regions.

Speaker Bio

Walle Tilahun Alemu is a dedicated Lecturer and Researcher in the Department of Mathematics at Debre Markos University, Ethiopia, with a strong background in applied mathematics. He holds an MSc in Mathematics (Differential Equations) from Debre Markos University and his research interests include numerical analysis, differential equations, and mathematical modeling. Mr. Tilahun has contributed to the field through publications in reputable journals, including a recent study on the fractional biochemical reaction model published in the International Journal of Applied and Computational Mathematics. He is an active researcher and has experience as a keynote speaker, sharing his insights at academic collaborations between universities.

The recording is also available in French and Portuguese.