Exploring the spatial epidemiology of malaria and the effectiveness of spatially-targeted intervention strategies approaching elimination

El Salvador saw rapid declines in malaria prevalence in the early 1980s, and is now in the elimination phase. However neighbouring countries did not see similar reductions, despite sharing many features such as climate, demography and annual transmission potentials. The aim of this project is to understand how malaria transmission dynamics and prevalence varied over time and space in El Salvador as the country approached elimination, identify what lead to the observed declines in malaria, and to determine whether the strategies implemented in El Salvador should be replicated elsewhere, and if so in which contexts. To do this, the project will synthesise data from the El Salvadorian Ministry of Health, satellite data and other data sources through literature review. Then geostatistical analyses will be used to understand variation in patterns of malaria over time and space, as well as their associations with context-specific factors such as demography and climate. Mechanistic mathematical models will then be developed to understand the impact of measures to control malaria, and integrated within a geostatistical framework. Finally the project will explore how imported cases varied over space and time, as well as assessing their effect on malaria epidemiology .

Last mile of Elimination
Residual Transmission

Oct 2015 — Oct 2019

$220,101

El Salvador
United Kingdom