Last Updated: 06/11/2023
Current and future distribution patterns of Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae) in South America
Objectives
*Original title in Portuguese: Padrões de distribuição atual e futuro de Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae) na América do sul
General objective of this research is to know the richness of Anopheles spp. and the distribution of the main species in South America, for the present time and for the future.
Specific objectives are to:
- Model the niche of the main Anopheles species for South America.
- Predict the future distribution of the same species.
- Analyze the richness pattern of anopheles for South America.
- Check how climate change will affect this pattern.
- Compare different models of future climate projections on the influence of Anopheles species distribution and richness pattern.
Environmental changes resulting from human activity can lead to the redistribution of pathogens, especially those transmitted by vectors, such as malaria, the parasitic disease that kills the most people per year in the world. They propose to know the richness of Anopheles spp. and the distribution of the main species in South America, for the present and future time. For predictive modeling of its distribution, two global circulation models (GCM) will be used: 1) CCCMA_cgcm3; 2) ukmo_Hadcm3. The research will test 2 scenarios, a2 and b1, for each of them, using the 19 BioClim layers. In this way, it will be possible to estimate the environmental conditions that are appropriate for each species, and predict its distribution based on climate changes. The results may be useful for health agencies and governments, as they contribute to the assessment of health impacts due to the redistribution of Anopheles spp. resulting from climate change.
Jan 2020
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