Attribution of a Changing CLIMate in the AssessmenT of malaria Intervention Strategy Efficiency (ACCLIMATISE)

Recent significant investments in malaria interventions have reduced malaria burden. Contemporaneously, the climate has continued to warm with associated changes in rainfall and weather extremes, which compound year to year and decadal climate variability. Together these impact malaria transmission through the climate sensitivity of the parasite and its mosquito vector. Hence, climate change can either enhance or offset the impact of malaria interventions. Conversely, interventions can be optimised to mitigate the effects of climate, for instance to prevent outbreaks at higher altitudes. Ignoring the confounding effects of climate can result in the impact of interventions being over or underestimated. Equally, neglecting the impact of interventions would render attribution of malaria outbreaks to anthropogenic climate inaccurate. The investigator will use counterfactual simulations to attribute anthropogenic climate change in malaria trends in endemic settings, as well as extremes in highland areas and the monsoon fringe with a range of intervention scenarios. An AI-emulator will be co-designed with stakeholders to assess efficient intervention strategies in the present and near future to 2050.

Climate Change
Financing & Economics
Modeling
Social Science

Jun 2025 — Jun 2028

$3.73M

Italy