Last Updated: 17/12/2024

Predicting the impact of border control on malaria transmission: a simulated focal screen and treat campaign

Objectives

A mathematical model is used to simulate malaria transmission in Mpumalanga and Maputo province, Mozambique (the source of the majority of imported infections) to predict the impact of a focal screen and treat (FSAT) campaign at the Mpumalanga–Maputo border.

Principal Institution

University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa

Principal Investigators / Focal Persons

Sheetal Silal

Partner Institutions

Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Thailand

Rationale and Abstract

A successful interruption of malaria transmission ideally requires three elements: (1) the elimination of the vector, (2) the blockade of imported infections and (3) the reduction of these imported infections at their source. Silal et al. have simulated interventions in Mpumalanga using mathematical modelling techniques aimed towards elements (1) and (3) [ref a, ref b]. This study focuses in more detail on the proposed FSAT campaign at the Mpumalanga–Maputo border by nesting an individual-based model within the metapopulation transmission model.

Study Design

The FSAT campaign at the Mpumalanga–Maputo border is simulated using a hybrid metapopulation differential equation and individual based modelling (DE-IBM) approach.

Project Outputs