Last Updated: 14/02/2023

Developing a multiscale model combining both within-host and population level information to predict the emergence and spread of antimalarial resistance

Objectives

To develop an experimental and clinical data-based multiscale model integrating both malaria infection in individual human hosts and transmission among the population in order to identify the key factors determining the emergence of spread of antimalarial resistance (particularly the artemisinin resistance in this project) and predict the optimal control strategies.

Principal Investigators / Focal Persons

Pengxing Cao

Rationale and Abstract

In this project, we aim to develop a multiscale model integrating both malaria infection in individual human hosts (the within-host model) and transmission among the population (the transmission model). While constructing the transmission model, we will apply the model to preliminarily investigate the artemisinin resistance in Myanmar as a case study. We aim to establish a platform that can identify the key factors in determining the establishment of drug resistance in a population, examine/explain historical data and apply the model (with parameters estimated from data from a specific certain country/region) to predict when and where the resistance is likely to emerge and spread and what are the optimal strategies of intervention.

Study Design

The development of the multiscale model will take two stages: the first is developing a withinhost model based on experimental and clinical data; the second stage is developing a transmission model (incorporating the within-host model) based on epidemiological data from either our collaborators or the literature (we will look at Myanmar’s artemisinin resistance as a case study to test our model’s feasibility).

Thematic Categories

Modelling
Surveillance

Date

Aug 2018 — Oct 2023

Total Project Funding

$15,000

Project Site

Australia

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