THE PRICE OF RETREAT – How underinvestment in malaria risks resurgence, lost growth, and a generation’s future

This report was written and produced by the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA) and Malaria No More UK (MNMUK). It is based on analysis from Management Sciences for Health (MSH). We are grateful to the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) for sharing data modelling which underpins the analysis. The report is published as a contribution to Zero Malaria, a global movement born out of the grassroots pan-African campaign Zero Malaria Starts with Me, that is committed to ending malaria in a generation.

This report, published by MNMUK and ALMA, explores the potential economic impact of a resurgence based on new modelling by Management Sciences for Health (MSH). The report deploys analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of malaria cases and deaths from different funding scenarios on growth and development across Africa. It examines how changes in malaria funding can affect overall growth, trade, and future earnings loss, as well as key economic development sectors including agriculture, tourism, extractives, other major employers, and overall costs to the health system and individuals. The report provides both global, regional and national analysis, with detailed exploration of eight high-priority countries that account for over 50% of the global burden of malaria: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Uganda, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia.

The analysis in this report demonstrates the case for why malaria investments are so important for African economies and their trading partners, as well as the continued need for international financing to support countries to grow their economies in a sustainable way to ensure effective domestic resource mobilisation for malaria and broader health investements in the years ahead.