Defining the population at risk and burden of disease of Plasmodium vivax malaria

Five themes support these central goals. (1) Unstable transmission mapping needs to be radically improved to support hybridisation of traditional burden estimation techniques with geostatistical methods in these lower transmission but highly populous areas. (2) Stable transmission mapping must also be achieved and a large proportion of the proposal concerns the development of new Bayesian MBG cartographic procedures to provide continuous endemicity surfaces for P. vivax. (3) Clinical incidence mapping in areas of unstable and stable transmission will also be conducted to allow objective determination of the most precise method of burden estimation for each nation. (4) G6PD prevalence mapping is also required and, when combined in a Bayesian decision-support framework with the new P. vivax endemicity maps, will enable statistical evidenced-based primaquine treatment policy in both control and elimination contexts. (5) Basic reproductive number under control (Rc) mapping to support elimination cartography, will require substantial development of available mathematical models for P. vivax transmission. The biology of P. vivax, including its ability to relapse from liver stages, has consequences for mapping, burden estimation and modelling that will require innovative solutions.

Measurement of Transmission
P. vivax

Dec 2011 — Nov 2016

$1.72M

United Kingdom