A modeling study capturing seasonality and heterogeneity of malaria transmission to predict the effect of interventions in high-endemic settings
To develop a model of malaria transmission that captures seasonal-timescale immune dynamics as well as seasonality and heterogeneity of exposure observed in the Sahel.
The model will then be used to predict the optimal times at which to deploy vector control and drug-based interventions, compare various possible implementations of seasonal malaria chemoprevention, and test whether targeting high-risk groups with higher intervention coverage is a promising strategy for malaria control in high-endemic areas.
Prevalence, incidence, asexual parasite and gametocyte densities, and infectiousness measurements from eight study sites in sub-Saharan Africa were used to calibrate an individual-based model with innate and adaptive immunity. Data from the Garki Project was used to fit exposure rates and parasite densities with month-resolution.